Rising Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Concerns of Military Confrontation

Mounting apprehensions exist about the chance of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in the previous year that his nation's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "rectified tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

The information ministry warned on recently that efforts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast training completions of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a announcement that the war was over – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

But relations have later worsened again.