Irish Unification Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."